跨境资本流入将趋势性增长Uptrend in Cross-border Capital Inflows“我国国际收支将保持基本平衡的格局?，跨境资本流入将趋势性增长∴π。”潘功胜说∴♂⌒，近年来我国经常账户逐步进入基本平衡的发展阶段□▽，这是中国经济结构不断优化和内外部平衡的结果∴。展望未来┊，中国较高的储蓄率和较强的制造业竞争力将有助于经常账户保持基本平衡〇☆。China will continue to see a basic equilibrium in its balance of payments, as its cross-border capital inflows increase. China has achieved a basic balance in its current account in recent years, reflecting continuous efforts to optimize the economic structure and balance internal and external factors. Looking ahead, China’s relatively high savings rate and strong manufacturing competitiveness will contribute to further equilibrium in the current account.近年来☆□，外资流入我国债市和股市资金明显增多┊，成为我国资本项下跨境资金流动的一个重要特征♂。截至2019年11月末﹡☆♂，境外投资者持有中国债券和上市股票余额分别为3248亿和2838亿美元◇，比2016年末上升1.6倍和1.1倍∟。展望未来□□，随着我国金融市场对外开放步伐加快〇﹡，境外资本进入我国金融市场仍具有较大的增长空间∵⌒☆。Turning to China’s cross-border capital flows, the nation’s stock and bond markets have seen increased capital inflows in recent years. The balance of onshore bonds and listed stocks held by foreign investors reached US$324.8 billion and US$283.8 billion, respectively, as of the end of November 2019. Both were more than twice the amount recorded at the end of 2016. China expects more overseas capital to flow into its markets as the country moves to open up its financial sector at a faster pace.
Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China and administrator of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, offered his views on China’s foreign exchange situation and monetary policy at the 2020 China Economic Trends conference held on January 12 by the Economic Daily in Beijing.Pan’s keynote speech touched on the renminbi exchange rate, China’s cross-border capital flows, overseas lending and monetary policy. Excerpts from the speech follow.
我国外债风险总体可控Foreign Debts Generally under Control对于外债问题△⊙，潘功胜表示⌒◇∟，我国外债风险总体可控□∵?，外债结构也趋于优化〇〇。从总量看∟，我国外债规模变化总体上与经济增长及对外开放水平相适应﹡∵，外债主要指标处于国际安全线以内?。从结构看☆〇，债券成为近年来我国外债增加的主要推动力♂，境外投资者以中长期资产配置需求为主⌒，稳定性较强♀，这将是未来我国外债发展变化中的一个重要特点⊙。According to Pan, the risks of China’s foreign debts are generally under control and their structure is being optimized. In terms of the total volume of foreign debts, changes in its scale basically move in line with economic growth and the degree of opening up the economy to outside interests. The main measures of foreign debts are within the widely accepted limits of prudent economic management. As to the structure of these debts, bonds have been the key factor in the rise in China’s foreign debt level in recent years. Overseas investors have been seeking more stable medium-to-long term asset allocations and this is likely to be an important shift in the future development of China’s foreign debts.
翻译 | 魏凌波 刘馨Translated by Wei Lingbo and Liu Xin
来源 | 中国经济网This article was edited and translated from the article published on www.ce.cn.
人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上保持了基本稳定Stability in the Renminbi Exchange Rate在谈到人民币汇率时↑△，潘功胜表示☆▽♀，2019年外部环境错综复杂◇♂π，全球经济贸易增长放缓、国际金融市场波动加大□〇┊，但人民币汇率在全球货币中表现相对稳健♀△，在合理均衡水平上保持了基本稳定〇⊿，同时人民币汇率弹性不断增强、双向波动∵◇◇，在配置外汇资源、平衡国际收支、增强宏观经济韧性方面发挥了重要的自动稳定器作用∴⌒∟。The renminbi exchange rate in 2019 was generally stable, particularly in comparison with a number of other currencies. Despite a complicated external environment that was marked by a slowdown in global trade and economic growth as well as increased volatility on international financial markets last year, the renminbi rate remained stable at an appropriate and balanced level. At the same time, it showed more flexibility with greater two-way movement. With this expanded flexibility, the renminbi acted as an automatic stabilizing mechanism, helping to maintain equilibrium in the international balance of payments and the allocation of foreign exchange resources. The renminbi rate also enhanced China’s macroeconomic resilience.
Pan Gongsheng Discusses China’s Foreign Exchange Situation And Monetary Policy
我国外汇市场供求及跨境资金流动总体稳定Stability in the Foreign Exchange Market潘功胜认为∵，2019年☆△，我国外汇市场供求及跨境资金流动总体稳定☆♂，外汇储备余额稳中有升⊙⌒♀，外汇市场主体的交易行为更加理性有序⊙∴，外汇市场的风险缓释能力明显提升﹡，表现出较强的韧性◇。China saw overall stability in the supply and demand on its foreign exchange market in 2019, as a result of fairly stable cross-border capital flows. The foreign exchange market exhibited more rational and orderly trading. The ability to prevent and defuse risks in the market improved significantly, giving the market additional resilience. Additionally, the level of foreign exchange reserves rose steadily.
继续实施稳健的货币政策Implementing a Prudent Monetary Policy “中国是全球主要经济体中少数仍然实行常态化货币政策的国家↑♂。”潘功胜强调┊⊙，要继续实施稳健的货币政策┊π□，为促进经济高质量发展创造良好的货币金融环境♂♀┊。人民银行将坚持金融服务实体经济根本要求↑◇，综合考虑经济增长、通胀预期、宏观杠杆率和汇率稳定┊，保持灵活适度〇⊙，加强逆周期调节⌒，疏通政策传导机制∵，提升货币政策效能△，发挥好结构性工具引导作用♀，加大对重点领域和薄弱环节尤其小微企业、民营企业、制造业支持力度∴∟，服务经济高质量发展⊿。 “China is one of the few major economies that still maintains a normal monetary policy,” Pan said. He stressed that China shall maintain a prudent monetary policy in order to build a monetary and financial environment that is conducive to the development of a high-quality national economy. The People’s Bank of China will adhere to the fundamental requirement that finance should serve the real economy. In setting its policies, it will also take into consideration a range of factors such as economic growth, inflationary expectations, macro leverage and exchange rate stability. It will also maintain moderate flexibility, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, unblock policy transmission mechanisms, and promote the effectiveness of monetary policy. It will give full play to the guiding function of structural tools while enhancing support in key areas of the economy and strengthening assistance to weaker segments of the economy. These areas include small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and the manufacturing sector in order to serve the high-quality development of China’s economy.